THIS PODCAST WAS RECORDED BEFORE THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS WITH THE US AND IRAN. IT REMAINS RELEVANT.
Can an entrepreneur succeed and staying profitable even when some much seems out of control? In this Tough Things First podcast, Ray Zinn has a reality check and some words of inspiration. (Watch Now!)
Ray Zinn: Hey Rob, good to be with you today.
Rob Artigo: Ray, this is a special edition of the Tough Things First Podcast. We are on video. Listeners can, if they want to watch, go to toughthingsfirst.com, navigate to this podcast, and then just click on watch now and it’ll open up on your YouTube channel. And there’s a bunch of other videos there as well if they want to watch them.
Today’s topic, leading through geopolitical whiplash, staying profitable when the world shakes with fresh US ren negotiations all over the news right now, it’s really dominating world affairs. This recent memorandum of understanding, there’s talks in Switzerland that went on ongoing ripples around the Strait of Hormuz, and energy markets, global uncertainty, really front and center.
So let’s start with the current landscape. We’re seeing progress in US-Iran talks. Depends on which side you’re listening to. We know that President Trump tends to be more optimistic and the Iranians tend to want their people to think they’re being tough. So they say a lot of things that are just different than what the US government is saying regarding the negotiations, and there’s no real way to tell what’s going on behind those closed doors. So there’s this 60-day roadmap efforts to reopen the shipping lanes, oil swings. How should leaders view this kind of volatility right now?
Ray Zinn: It’s interesting because you have both countries that are trying to be optimistic. Iran’s trying to be optimistic, United States is trying to be optimistic, which is good. I mean, if you look at some of the best football games, both sides are optimistic. Both sides believe they’re going to win. It’s got to be a win-win. It’s got to be a win-win for Iran. It’s got to be a win-win for the United States. The definition of what win-win is open for discussion. That’s what we’re going to talk about today. In any case, every country that has been involved with the United States has really done pretty well. I mean, look at Venezuela getting rid of Madura. Venezuela is doing much better now that they’ve got a cooperation with the US.
When we become good competitors as opposed to bad competitors, that’s when both sides win. So that’s the win-win when both sides benefit. The Iranian people are very intelligent, very well-educated, and they’re technically a very strong people, and have been since the beginning of time as you would for thousands of years. Anytime you’re ruled by a theocracy, again, that becomes difficult because you’re trying to merge a theocratical set of policies against really what works in the world today. If your politics are such that you believe you’re the only one that’s right and everybody else is wrong, that’s when you don’t get along. Whether it be neighbors, whether it be friends, whether it be spouses, whether it be children, there’s always that issue of balancing win-win. You can’t always have it your way. You to have it both ways.
And I think the current administration in the US trying to make it a win-win for both countries. If the belief is that the one country is going to destroy the world or destroy society, that’s going to affect the other side, which doesn’t want to be destroyed as you would. And so rather than putting a marker on who’s who there, we’ve got a conflict currently in the Middle East with Iran and their neighbors and also with what we call the free world. And if you believe your neighbor is going to do you in, you’re going to put up your fences. You’re going to arm yourself. You’re going to try to keep that neighbor under control. And that’s the problem we have with the US and Iran is that the US believed that Iran is up to no good. And Iran hasn’t proven that they’re up to good.
So they’ve convinced at least the majority of the world that they’re up to no good according to the surveys, the polls that we’ve done. And so we have to protect ourselves as you would. And sometimes a good defense is a good offense, and that’s kind of where we were in the last couple of months. There’s no need of destroying Iran. Iran is a good country, good people, but we need to set the red line as you would, or set the stage for continued relations where we don’t look upon Iran as a bad neighbor. And so the Iranians are very proud, very proud people, and they don’t want to look at that as being put down, squashed as you would. And I think the administration’s trying to do that. There’s a lot of political implications associated with the relationship between the Middle East and the rest of the free world, which revolves around oil.
20% of all oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That has to be opened back up. It’s affecting oil prices. You can see what’s happening right now is by the United States opening up the Strait of Hormuz that oil prices are coming down. And that’s necessary for the administration currently to not let it harm the midterm elections. That oil price thing has been used by the opposition party to castigate the current administration and their party as being inflationary and as causing a lot of problems with the poorer families because of the cost of fuel and fertilizer and other things that are associated with the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz.
So I’d like to see the administration work out a good deal with the Iranians and the Middle East so that we can have more peace as you would, less war or less battling and contention. So that’s what I would like to see. And if we give the current administration a little bit of breathing room, I think that they’ll pull that off. They have a political motivation to cease that to conflict because it will help them during the midterm if they can get the oil prices back down because oil prices affect everything. And so I think we all understand that. I would like to see a more peaceful resolution with the Iranians, and I’d like not to have to see that country destroyed just to make them listen as you would.
Rob Artigo:
Yeah, we’ll close it out with this question. On the opportunity side, because we’re thinking about the business environment in the United States, talking to our listeners who many are entrepreneurs, they’re founders of their own business, or they’re running their own businesses or thinking about running a business. How can smart leaders turn this whiplash environment? As you say, that the oil prices going up and down and various key indicators going up and down rapidly and with large moves. How do they turn this whiplash into an advantage? I know you did that with Micrel on many downturn opportunities.
Ray Zinn:
Well, downturns bring upturns because the worse and more severe the downturn, the harder we work to reverse that to give it an upturn. So I see currently in the market, a lot of these tech stocks are getting a little overpriced. So I say watch out, be careful because with inflation up a little bit and these stock prices are pretty high, I think we need to take a little bit of a pause here, even though we do expect there to be good growth in US. In fact, the growth that we’re seeing is about twice what I had forecasted for 2026, and the stock market’s reflecting that.
So if you’re not in the stock market, you’re not doing very well. If you are in the stock market, you’re going to do quite well. So again, it’s a matter of timing. I think we’re peaking a little bit on the stock. And so I’m not saying you want to vacate the market, but you may want to relax a little bit and realize that the trees don’t grow all the way to the sky, and so we’re not going to se this kind of growth continue for the next year and a half. So cautionary effort to just watch out. I mean, we are peaking. We’re growing a little faster than what seems to be legitimate. And let’s just be on the cautious side over the next six to nine months.
Rob Artigo:
Yeah, Ray, your advice is always grounded and insightful in this area. And if you predicted the dot-com bust, I’m hearing that you’re not saying watch for a bust, but you might be saying watch for a correction and be aware of that. And maybe now is the time to take a little bit of the profits and set it aside and get ready for kind of a dip. I think that’s what I’m hearing. Is that pretty much correct?
Ray Zinn:
Right. Right. Again, I’m not forecasting a dot-com. It can happen again. We could get a dot-com implosion if we’re not watching, if we’re not being careful. Don’t spend the money just because you have it. Put away, as they say, sock some money away, and just be aware that I think things are peaking and that we need to be aware that we could see a little bit of a pullback over the next six to nine months.
Rob Artigo:
Okay, Ray, I want to tell the listeners they can check out your books. The latest one is The Zen of Zinn Daily. And don’t forget Tough Things First and the Essential Leader for more on building these skills that Ray talks about here on this podcast week in and week out. Visit toughthingsfirst.com for episodes of podcasts, more of those blogs. And the Zinn Starter Mentoring Program is discussed there and you can learn more about that as well. If you’re on a college campus or you’re running a college, this is something to look into and see if you can implement it there in your college as well. Subscribe and share your thoughts on today’s topic. And remember, do the tough things first, right, Ray?
Ray Zinn:
Absolutely. You can’t hurt doing the tough things first.
